Although, progressive betting systems aren’t the most glorified way of soccer betting these days, but some people claim that they can generate huge profits with the same. Researchers explored the Fibonacci betting system to check whether the returns were worth the risk or not. The essence of this very strategy was published in 2007 by Evan Osborne and Fragiskos Archontakis. The essence is simple, you bet on a draw, and if you lose the bet, bet on another one. Keep doing this process until you win. Also, there are two more important rules to follow:
- Only bet on the draws when the probability is above 2.618
- Raise your betting stake in such a way that it follows the Fibonacci sequence: 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21 and so on.
The Fibonacci betting system is based on the theory that the draw is the hardest for the bookmarkers to predict and hence can be exploited.
The Fibonacci theory being practiced
When you look at the data from the 2011-12 Premier League, there were a total of 93 draws in 380 games. Hence, 24.5 percent of all games ended up in a tie. What was interesting was, the odds for a prospective draw in all the 380 ties were above the 2.618 threshold as recommended as the lower limit by Osborne and Archontakis. In other words, on an average, a payout is done in every four games. In other words, it also means that the winning stake would be the fourth Fibonacci number—3, with a total bet every time £7. Now considering the average odds for a draw in the season were 4.203, in other words, the average winning was £12.61 when £3 was multiplied by the odds. Along with this a profit of £5.61 earned, when the stakes were subtracted. Over the 380 games, it was tantamount to a profit in theory of £1786.7, everything for just an initial stake of £1.
Drawbacks of the strategy
There are many practical drawbacks that avoid the Fibonacci sequence from winning you money. To begin, there are many games that are played in a concurrent way, which means there is no option to raise your stakes to the next Fibonacci number if a draw doesn’t happen, as the games will terminate at the same time. Rather than this, the bettors might give a try to apply the Fibonacci betting sequence to the individual teams. This betting method lets the long streaks with no draws to cause huge holes in the bettors’ bank balances. If you look at the longest Premier League streak with no draws (the Man Utd Match in 2008-09), the red devils played 20 games with no draws, before eventually succumbing to a 0-0 tie with Arsenal.
Due to the Fibonacci sequence rise to an exponential level, the bettors would have to bet at least £10,946 on that very last game in order to follow the sequence. When you include that bet, anyone who is following the betting system would have had to stake at least £28,656, which is a huge sum for a system that normally offers the winnings of just £21.02! Also interestingly enough, the odds for a draw on that very game were 4.10. But, it would have made you win £44,878.60, or a profit of £16.222.60. With the Fibonacci sequences, the raised stakes also offer impressive returns.
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